Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | HC +140 BUCK -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -4.9 (+18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -3.8 (+17.8) | 134.6 (-2.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -3.2 (+17.2) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -3.7 (+17.7) | 135.9 (-3.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -3.7 (+17.7) | 135.5 (-3.5) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HC 65 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUCK 94 – 81 HC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BUCK 86 – 82 HC |
| Jan 4, 2024 | BUCK 70 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-14 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -15.0 (#353) | -6.7 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#348) | -1.57 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.42 (#355) | -1.78 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#346) | 0.447 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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