Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | BUCK -260 HC +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +4 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | BUCK -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -3.2 (+0.8) | 136.3 (+31.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -3.6 (+0.4) | 141.1 (+26.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -2.3 (+1.7) | 138.0 (+30.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -3.1 (+0.9) | 137.6 (+30.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HC 65 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUCK 94 – 81 HC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HC 73 – 59 BUCK |
| Jan 4, 2024 | BUCK 70 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#255) | -7.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#270) | -0.09 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#255) | -0.68 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#265) | 0.502 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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