Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | HC +114 BUCK -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +7 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | HC -4.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HC -1.7 (+5.3) | 135.0 (-12.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -2.1 (+4.9) | 133.7 (-10.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HC -2.7 (+4.3) | 134.1 (-11.1) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HC -1.8 (+5.2) | 135.8 (-12.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BUCK 94 – 81 HC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BUCK 86 – 82 HC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HC 73 – 59 BUCK |
| Jan 4, 2024 | BUCK 70 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#313) | -10.8 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#292) | -1.77 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.52 (#314) | -2.27 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#290) | 0.442 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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