Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | HC +195 BUCK -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +13 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | BUCK -2.6 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -3.2 (-9.8) | 143.3 (+31.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -2.9 (-10.1) | 146.4 (+28.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -2.6 (-10.4) | 145.6 (+29.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -3.3 (-9.7) | 146.0 (+29.0) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | HC 72 – 63 BUCK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HC 65 – 58 BUCK |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BUCK 86 – 82 HC |
| Feb 22, 2024 | HC 73 – 59 BUCK |
| Jan 4, 2024 | BUCK 70 – 58 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#310) | -3.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#286) | -0.66 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#294) | -0.78 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#242) | 0.490 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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