Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NE -225 NCAT +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +12 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | NE -5.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -3.3 (+8.7) | 138.2 (+25.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -3.3 (+8.7) | 137.5 (+26.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -3.7 (+8.3) | 137.9 (+26.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -3.3 (+8.7) | 136.5 (+27.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NE 88 – 72 NCAT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NE 85 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NE 69 – 55 NCAT |
| Jan 19, 2024 | NCAT 72 – 65 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#266) | -6.4 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#243) | -0.95 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#242) | -1.15 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#221) | 0.438 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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