Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +120 NE -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +16 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NCAT -0.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.4 (-16.4) | 150.3 (+9.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -0.5 (-15.5) | 148.4 (+11.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -0.3 (-16.3) | 148.9 (+11.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.4 (-16.4) | 149.1 (+10.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | NE 85 – 74 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NE 69 – 55 NCAT |
| Jan 19, 2024 | NCAT 72 – 65 NE |
| Dec 30, 2022 | NE 88 – 76 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#272) | -7.3 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#273) | -1.67 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#283) | -1.91 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#300) | 0.429 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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