Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +150 NE -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -0.1 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -0.8 (-11.8) | 147.5 (+11.5) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -0.2 (-10.8) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -1.4 (-12.4) | 145.3 (+13.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -0.8 (-11.8) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NE 88 – 72 NCAT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NE 69 – 55 NCAT |
| Jan 19, 2024 | NCAT 72 – 65 NE |
| Dec 30, 2022 | NE 88 – 76 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 2-16 |
| Home | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#266) | -2.2 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#261) | -0.92 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#272) | -1.18 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#297) | 0.459 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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