Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
XFINITY Center · December 30, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MD -17.5 Away covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money MD -2500 / UMBC +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total MD win
Actual MD +16 144 Won
Massey MD -17.7 (-1.7) — —
Massey Totals — 146.4 (-2.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 96% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 99% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MD -16.8 (-0.8) 143.7 (+0.3) 88% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MD -16.0 (+0.0) 144.6 (-0.6) 88% ✓
Baseline ML MD -16.7 (-0.7) 144.0 (-0.0) 88% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MD -15.9 (+0.1) 143.9 (+0.1) 88% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2023 MD 92 – 68 UMBC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MD UMBC
Overall 22-13 18-14
Conference 11-9 8-8
Home 16-1 13-4
Away 2-9 5-10
Neutral 4-3 0-0
Last 5 2-3 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.7 73.7
Avg Pts Against 63.5 73.0
Massey 11.7 (#32) -1.4 (#197)
Bradley-Terry 2.19 (#36) -0.17 (#200)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.00 (#30) -0.53 (#214)
RPI 0.598 (#38) 0.462 (#242)
Shooting & Four Factors MD UMBC
FG% 46.7% 44.0%
3PT% 32.2% 37.5%
REB / G 37.0 34.8
OREB / G 10.1 10.0
AST / TO 0.99 1.40
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.3% 52.5%
TOV% 17.5% 15.7%
ORB% 31.2% 28.4%
FT Rate 26.2% 20.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.6% 53.6%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 18.2%
DRB% 71.0% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 18.6% 18.2%

Game Analysis

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