Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MD -2500 UMBC +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MD -17.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -16.8 (-0.8) | 143.7 (+0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -16.0 (+0.0) | 144.6 (-0.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -16.7 (-0.7) | 144.0 (-0.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -15.9 (+0.1) | 143.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2023 | MD 92 – 68 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#32) | -1.4 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#36) | -0.17 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#30) | -0.53 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#38) | 0.462 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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