Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | MD -1600 UMBC +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +24 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MD -7.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -6.7 (+17.3) | 140.2 (+19.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.8 (+20.2) | 137.5 (+22.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -4.2 (+19.8) | 137.5 (+22.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.2 (+20.8) | 139.4 (+20.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2022 | MD 80 – 64 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-10 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#214) | -1.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#329) | -0.76 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#309) | -0.81 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.327 (#336) | 0.412 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.6% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 21.6% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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