Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +100 SIU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.5 (-6.5) | 134.3 (-14.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.1 (-9.1) | 136.2 (-16.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.5 (-6.5) | 134.9 (-14.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.1 (-5.9) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#204) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#165) | 0.81 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#169) | 0.47 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#181) | 0.523 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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