Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -200 MAN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -4.9 (+5.1) | 135.6 (-11.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -6.2 (+3.8) | 130.7 (-6.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -4.4 (+5.6) | 137.8 (-13.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -4.9 (+5.1) | 137.7 (-13.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#315) | -10.7 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#283) | -2.04 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#283) | -3.07 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#290) | 0.387 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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