Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -275 STET +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +6 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -4.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -1.0 (-7.0) | 145.4 (+20.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -2.6 (-8.6) | 144.1 (+21.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -2.5 (-8.5) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -2.3 (-8.3) | 147.1 (+18.9) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | LIP 79 – 74 STET |
| Jan 9, 2026 | STET 91 – 83 LIP |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LIP 93 – 60 STET |
| Jan 27, 2024 | STET 80 – 59 LIP |
| Mar 1, 2023 | LIP 83 – 70 STET |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#208) | -1.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#214) | -0.10 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#219) | -0.05 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#229) | 0.506 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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