Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -1200 USF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +7 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -15.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.8 (+39.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -11.3 (-4.3) | 144.5 (+34.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -15.0 (-8.0) | 143.1 (+35.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -12.4 (-5.4) | 144.7 (+34.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -12.8 (-5.8) | 145.3 (+33.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#49) | -0.8 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#39) | -0.77 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#22) | -0.40 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#26) | 0.450 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.