Betting Lines
| Spread | FDU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | FDU -120 MRMK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +8 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | FDU -9.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FDU -5.9 (+2.1) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FDU -5.6 (+2.4) | 135.5 (-1.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FDU -7.6 (+0.4) | 138.5 (-4.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FDU -7.1 (+0.9) | 139.7 (-5.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 FDU |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MRMK 60 – 56 FDU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | MRMK 67 – 66 FDU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | FDU 78 – 71 MRMK |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MRMK 64 – 44 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.0 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#305) | -12.5 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#282) | -3.71 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#282) | -4.87 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#292) | 0.389 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 35.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 23.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 59.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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