Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | FDU +150 MRMK -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FDU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +19 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -5.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -4.4 (-14.6) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -3.3 (-15.7) | 145.6 (-16.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -4.9 (-14.1) | 145.9 (-16.9) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -4.1 (-14.9) | 145.3 (-16.3) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 5, 2024 | MRMK 60 – 56 FDU |
| Mar 8, 2023 | MRMK 67 – 66 FDU |
| Jan 28, 2023 | FDU 78 – 71 MRMK |
| Dec 30, 2022 | FDU 71 – 63 MRMK |
| Feb 18, 2022 | MRMK 64 – 44 FDU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FDU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-9 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#325) | -1.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#309) | -0.28 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#318) | -0.52 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#302) | 0.520 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FDU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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