Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -138 MORE +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -8.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.5 (-11.5) | 142.7 (+15.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -2.3 (-10.3) | 139.0 (+19.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.3 (-11.3) | 142.8 (+15.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -2.8 (-10.8) | 142.9 (+15.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TNST 93 – 67 MORE |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MORE 94 – 86 TNST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TNST 105 – 100 MORE |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TNST 64 – 55 MORE |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MORE 74 – 68 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#282) | -10.0 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#300) | -0.68 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#298) | -1.40 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#336) | 0.464 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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