Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -450 APP +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +26 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -15.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -11.9 (+14.1) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -11.3 (+14.7) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -12.5 (+13.5) | 143.3 (-11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -12.8 (+13.2) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | MRSH 94 – 93 APP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MRSH 88 – 81 APP |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MRSH 75 – 57 APP |
| Feb 22, 2025 | MRSH 69 – 59 APP |
| Feb 24, 2024 | APP 65 – 58 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 66.1 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#59) | -2.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#60) | -1.15 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#62) | -1.50 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#63) | 0.438 (#288) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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