I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 7.9 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kentucky @ Missouri +2.9 156.2 66% 75–89 ✓
Florida @ Auburn +5.8 143.2 73% 58–61 ✓
Chicago State @ Ball State +12.3 142.3 87% 63–70 ✓
Wichita State @ UCF +7.8 126.8 79% 45–52 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina +4.1 139.9 71% 59–57 ✗
Coppin State @ Richmond +12.5 149.3 86% 65–83 ✓
Harvard @ Maine -0.3 133.6 47% 74–73 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +6.6 132.9 73% 57–69 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham +4.0 148.1 73% 57–43 ✗
Rider @ Georgia +8.9 135.4 78% 72–78 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +2.0 145.2 61% 69–78 ✓
Nicholls @ Baylor +19.2 150.3 90% 56–85 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +0.6 130.6 50% 79–67 ✗
Illinois State @ UIC +2.2 141.2 62% 51–55 ✓
Bradley @ Belmont -1.1 138.4 46% 60–63 ✗
Houston @ Tulsa -15.0 130.7 14% 89–50 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State +0.6 136.3 54% 78–67 ✗
Arkansas @ LSU -4.3 141.9 35% 57–60 ✗
Xavier @ St. John's -0.1 159.1 49% 84–79 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +11.0 150.2 84% 69–88 ✓
Southern Utah @ New Mexico State +6.4 157.9 73% 79–75 ✗
UNLV @ San José State -1.5 135.9 43% 72–75 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada +2.4 132.7 61% 72–74 ✓
Wyoming @ Fresno State +3.7 130.7 68% 53–58 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +11.8 132.6 87% 55–71 ✓
Brown @ Northwestern +17.0 128.2 88% 58–63 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University -10.4 136.7 18% 69–61 ✓
La Salle @ Howard +3.1 137.7 63% 80–76 ✗
Delaware State @ Penn State +23.2 144.6 91% 46–60 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina -0.1 135.0 52% 72–47 ✓
Stonehill @ Sacred Heart +2.2 145.4 61% 74–67 ✗
Alabama A&M @ Ohio State +23.7 150.0 91% 59–90 ✓
High Point @ Longwood +6.0 149.1 73% 73–87 ✓
Radford @ UNC Asheville +2.0 149.5 61% 58–62 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +11.5 135.1 86% 50–62 ✓
Florida A&M @ Purdue +24.8 138.7 91% 49–82 ✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate +0.7 147.3 56% 62–70 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb +8.4 135.3 80% 63–83 ✓
Campbell @ Presbyterian -2.8 131.8 41% 72–82 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte +6.1 134.7 74% 67–82 ✓
Austin Peay @ Queens University +9.5 139.6 87% 77–81 ✓
Providence @ Butler +3.0 145.3 64% 72–52 ✗
Liberty @ Bellarmine -7.4 132.1 26% 70–53 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.