Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +130 ALA -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +11 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -0.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.5 (-10.5) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.2 (-10.8) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -0.6 (-11.6) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -1.4 (-12.4) | 137.9 (+7.1) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#46) | 15.5 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#24) | 3.65 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.78 (#39) | 4.72 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#62) | 0.663 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 47.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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