Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +140 WIN -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -0.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.2 (+6.8) | 145.7 (-13.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -0.5 (+8.5) | 143.7 (-11.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.7 (+7.3) | 147.3 (-15.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.9 (+7.1) | 148.3 (-16.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#329) | -5.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#220) | -0.64 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#266) | -0.72 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#228) | 0.477 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 59.5% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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