Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -167 PROV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +20 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | BTLR -5.8 (-25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-22.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -2.7 (-22.7) | 145.6 (-21.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -1.5 (-21.5) | 143.4 (-19.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -3.0 (-23.0) | 145.3 (-21.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.8 (-22.8) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | PROV 91 – 81 BTLR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | PROV 97 – 87 BTLR |
| Dec 13, 2025 | BTLR 113 – 110 PROV |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BTLR 75 – 69 PROV |
| Feb 8, 2025 | BTLR 82 – 81 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#65) | 7.5 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#72) | 1.47 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#73) | 1.99 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#94) | 0.544 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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