Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -350 DUQ +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -8.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.0 (+6.0) | 133.8 (-7.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -9.0 (+3.0) | 135.7 (-9.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -6.6 (+5.4) | 132.9 (-6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.8 (+5.2) | 134.2 (-8.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | DAY 78 – 66 DUQ |
| Jan 14, 2026 | DAY 71 – 65 DUQ |
| Feb 15, 2025 | DAY 77 – 76 DUQ |
| Jan 22, 2025 | DAY 82 – 62 DUQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | DUQ 65 – 57 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 16-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#81) | 2.0 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#131) | 0.93 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#104) | 0.88 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#142) | 0.542 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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