Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -1600 AF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -14.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.3 (+3.7) | 133.8 (-7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.6 (+1.4) | 132.2 (-6.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.8 (+4.2) | 132.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -12.2 (+3.8) | 133.0 (-7.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-9 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#36) | 1.0 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#48) | 0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#48) | -0.31 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#30) | 0.458 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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