Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +1400 HOU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +39 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -21.5 (-17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -18.0 (-21.0) | 130.3 (+8.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.2 (-24.8) | 130.5 (+8.5) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.0 (-24.0) | 130.7 (+8.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -17.8 (-21.2) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | HOU 80 – 42 TLSA |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HOU 66 – 64 TLSA |
| Jan 21, 2021 | HOU 86 – 59 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2020 | TLSA 65 – 64 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 17-1 |
| Home | 4-10 | 16-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 57.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#245) | 22.6 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#271) | 3.56 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#246) | 4.68 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#306) | 0.635 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 38.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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