Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +2 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -16.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -12.5 (+10.5) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -14.2 (+12.2) | 133.1 (-3.1) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.2 (+11.2) | 137.1 (-7.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.4 (+10.4) | 136.9 (-6.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | HOU 80 – 42 TLSA |
| Dec 29, 2022 | HOU 89 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 21, 2021 | HOU 86 – 59 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2020 | TLSA 65 – 64 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 32-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 9-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 58.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#160) | 20.7 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#210) | 3.04 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | 4.34 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#243) | 0.639 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 24.6% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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