Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -800 TLSA +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -15.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -15.0 (+12.0) | 128.6 (+16.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -12.5 (+14.5) | 127.0 (+18.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.0 (+14.0) | 126.6 (+18.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -14.3 (+12.7) | 128.1 (+16.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | HOU 80 – 42 TLSA |
| Dec 29, 2022 | HOU 89 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HOU 66 – 64 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2020 | TLSA 65 – 64 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-3 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 18.1 (#7) | 5.8 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#5) | 2.01 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.06 (#3) | 2.22 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#1) | 0.556 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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