Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +38 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -31.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -26.5 (+11.5) | 137.8 (-15.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -24.0 (+14.0) | 137.4 (-15.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -21.6 (+16.4) | 137.9 (-15.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -26.5 (+11.5) | 138.6 (-16.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2022 | HOU 89 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HOU 66 – 64 TLSA |
| Jan 21, 2021 | HOU 86 – 59 TLSA |
| Dec 30, 2020 | TLSA 65 – 64 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 1-17 |
| Home | 16-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 11-0 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 21.5 (#1) | -6.2 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#3) | -1.53 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.69 (#2) | -1.64 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#8) | 0.420 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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