Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Over |
| Money | TLSA +380 HOU -475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -8.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -5.2 (+6.2) | 130.3 (-1.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -6.5 (+7.5) | 128.7 (+0.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -5.0 (+6.0) | 128.8 (+0.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -5.5 (+6.5) | 128.7 (+0.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | HOU 80 – 42 TLSA |
| Dec 29, 2022 | HOU 89 – 50 TLSA |
| Jan 16, 2022 | HOU 66 – 64 TLSA |
| Jan 21, 2021 | HOU 86 – 59 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 28-4 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 14-3 |
| Home | 7-5 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-4 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 58.6 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | 16.9 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#163) | 4.85 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#139) | 7.54 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#245) | 0.726 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 40.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 26.2% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 34.3% |
Game Analysis
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