Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +125 XAV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -1.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.6 (-4.4) | 160.1 (+2.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.1 (-4.9) | 154.4 (+8.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.1 (-4.9) | 159.1 (+3.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -0.3 (-5.3) | 161.0 (+2.0) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#84) | 12.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#62) | 1.95 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#70) | 2.84 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#98) | 0.585 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 57.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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