Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LONG -188 HPU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -7.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -6.4 (+7.6) | 153.1 (+6.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -7.7 (+6.3) | 152.5 (+7.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -6.0 (+8.0) | 149.1 (+10.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -5.5 (+8.5) | 150.9 (+9.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | -0.5 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#187) | 0.74 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#188) | 0.41 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#203) | 0.536 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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