Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | RICH -1000 COPP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -13.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -12.8 (+5.2) | 149.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -14.7 (+3.3) | 151.8 (-3.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -12.5 (+5.5) | 149.3 (-1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -12.5 (+5.5) | 149.8 (-1.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | -6.0 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#206) | -0.38 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#155) | -0.71 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#166) | 0.502 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | COPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 62.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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