Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ME +210 HARV -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -0.2 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -1.4 (+0.4) | 131.6 (+15.4) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -2.6 (+1.6) | 132.6 (+14.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -0.3 (-0.7) | 133.6 (+13.4) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -0.2 (-0.8) | 134.5 (+12.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 8-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#249) | 0.9 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#235) | 0.34 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#201) | -0.04 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#215) | 0.526 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 24.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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