Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -120 RAD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -1.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.7 (+2.3) | 148.1 (-28.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.3 (+1.7) | 147.0 (-27.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.0 (+2.0) | 149.5 (-29.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.4 (+2.6) | 150.7 (-30.7) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#219) | 1.2 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#169) | -1.01 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#193) | -1.29 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#169) | 0.451 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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