Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -250 FLA +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -6.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.2 (-2.2) | 145.0 (-26.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.2 (-3.2) | 144.8 (-25.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.8 (-2.8) | 143.2 (-24.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.6 (-2.6) | 143.1 (-24.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#34) | 9.8 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#27) | 0.99 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#25) | 1.64 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.642 (#9) | 0.538 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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