Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | FLA +105 AUB -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.9 (+19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.8 (+17.8) | 158.8 (-12.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.9 (+16.9) | 158.9 (-12.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.0 (+17.0) | 158.9 (-12.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.7 (+16.7) | 161.0 (-15.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Dec 29, 2022 | AUB 61 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#37) | 19.4 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#35) | 2.79 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#28) | 3.60 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#31) | 0.627 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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