Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -800 AUB +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -9.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.7 (-20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -9.6 (-18.6) | 159.5 (-16.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -8.8 (-17.8) | 161.6 (-18.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -9.7 (-18.7) | 159.0 (-16.0) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -8.4 (-17.4) | 156.7 (-13.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
| Dec 29, 2022 | AUB 61 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#10) | 15.0 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.13 (#20) | 2.40 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#14) | 3.61 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#16) | 0.622 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 46.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 17.2 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 44.0% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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