Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | AUB +125 FLA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -1.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -1.0 (-7.0) | 153.5 (-1.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -0.3 (-6.3) | 154.7 (-2.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -1.0 (-7.0) | 155.5 (-3.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -1.5 (-7.5) | 155.3 (-3.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
| Dec 29, 2022 | AUB 61 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 26.0 (#2) | 24.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.84 (#2) | 4.87 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.91 (#2) | 6.20 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#1) | 0.657 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.74 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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