Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -700 FLA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +9 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -8.7 (-17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (+13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -8.2 (-17.2) | 157.0 (+14.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -9.4 (-18.4) | 153.4 (+17.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -9.1 (-18.1) | 155.1 (+15.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -9.2 (-18.2) | 155.5 (+15.5) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Mar 17, 2024 | AUB 86 – 67 FLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
| Dec 29, 2022 | AUB 61 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 27.4 (#1) | 21.9 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.42 (#1) | 3.73 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.75 (#1) | 5.02 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.720 (#1) | 0.637 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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