Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -250 FLA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +19 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -7.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.3 (+13.7) | 161.3 (-8.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -4.4 (+14.6) | 161.8 (-8.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -5.5 (+13.5) | 161.1 (-8.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.4 (+13.6) | 160.6 (-7.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | AUB 76 – 67 FLA |
| Apr 5, 2025 | FLA 79 – 73 AUB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FLA 90 – 81 AUB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | FLA 81 – 65 AUB |
| Dec 29, 2022 | AUB 61 – 58 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#5) | 13.3 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#7) | 2.27 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#7) | 3.05 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#11) | 0.597 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 42.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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