Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | HOW +100 LAS -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -3.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -2.1 (-6.1) | 137.8 (+18.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.1 (-7.1) | 137.7 (+18.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -2.7 (-6.7) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.2 (-6.2) | 140.1 (+15.9) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | HOW 71 – 66 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#305) | -6.7 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#240) | -1.05 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#269) | -1.58 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#231) | 0.449 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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