Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ +160 UK -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -1.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -2.9 (+11.1) | 156.2 (+7.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -0.9 (+13.1) | 154.5 (+9.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -3.3 (+10.7) | 156.3 (+7.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -3.1 (+10.9) | 156.9 (+7.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UK 78 – 72 MIZ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 68 UK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UK 91 – 83 MIZ |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UK 83 – 56 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#59) | 11.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.91 (#12) | 1.58 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#16) | 2.05 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#47) | 0.561 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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