Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | UK -1000 MIZ +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UK -16.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -13.8 (-0.8) | 158.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -12.2 (+0.8) | 160.3 (+6.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -15.2 (-2.2) | 157.8 (+9.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -13.7 (-0.7) | 159.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UK 78 – 72 MIZ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 68 UK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UK 91 – 83 MIZ |
| Dec 29, 2022 | MIZ 89 – 75 UK |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UK 83 – 56 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#15) | 3.1 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#18) | 0.68 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#24) | 1.15 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#25) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.96 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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