Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UK -24.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -19.0 (+8.0) | 144.8 (-5.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -15.6 (+11.4) | 144.7 (-5.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -22.3 (+4.7) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -22.3 (+4.7) | 145.0 (-6.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UK 78 – 72 MIZ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 68 UK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UK 91 – 83 MIZ |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 29, 2022 | MIZ 89 – 75 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-0 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#12) | -4.4 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#45) | -0.19 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#33) | -0.32 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#82) | 0.481 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 24.3% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 45.4% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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