Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -250 UK +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -1.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -3.0 (-11.0) | 170.3 (+3.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -1.5 (-9.5) | 165.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -2.4 (-10.4) | 164.7 (+9.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -2.3 (-10.3) | 168.3 (+5.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UK 78 – 72 MIZ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MIZ 73 – 68 UK |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MIZ |
| Dec 29, 2022 | MIZ 89 – 75 UK |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UK 83 – 56 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 18-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#17) | 19.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.14 (#11) | 3.27 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#11) | 3.90 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#32) | 0.622 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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