Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LSU +220 ARK -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.5 (+8.5) | 144.9 (-27.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.4 (+7.4) | 141.1 (-24.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -4.3 (+7.3) | 141.9 (-24.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -4.2 (+7.2) | 140.6 (-23.6) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#121) | 14.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#25) | 2.67 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#29) | 3.84 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#56) | 0.637 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LSU | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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