Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +220 UNLV -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +3 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -2.5 (+5.5) | 135.0 (+12.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -4.4 (+7.4) | 133.5 (+13.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -1.5 (+4.5) | 135.9 (+11.1) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -1.8 (+4.8) | 137.2 (+9.8) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UNLV 82 – 75 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UNLV 76 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 71 SJSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNLV 79 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNLV 68 – 50 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#152) | 8.7 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#94) | 2.22 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#85) | 3.23 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.630 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 29.6% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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