Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -1000 SJSU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -9.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -8.1 (-1.1) | 146.9 (+10.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -9.1 (-2.1) | 145.6 (+11.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -8.0 (-1.0) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -7.7 (-0.7) | 147.9 (+9.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UNLV 76 – 62 SJSU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | UNLV 77 – 71 SJSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNLV 79 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNLV 68 – 50 SJSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 65 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -4.8 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#132) | -1.06 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#134) | -1.10 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#133) | 0.448 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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