Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU +125 UNLV -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNLV -1.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -2.0 (-4.0) | 138.4 (+9.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -3.1 (-2.9) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -3.1 (-2.9) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -2.6 (-3.4) | 139.1 (+8.9) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | UNLV 82 – 75 SJSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UNLV 76 – 62 SJSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNLV 79 – 73 SJSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNLV 68 – 50 SJSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UNLV 77 – 65 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#170) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#172) | 0.75 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#179) | 1.13 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#231) | 0.527 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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