Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NU -1400 BRWN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | NU -18.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -16.6 (-11.6) | 129.8 (-8.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -15.8 (-10.8) | 127.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -17.0 (-12.0) | 128.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -17.3 (-12.3) | 127.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | -2.6 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | -0.34 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#47) | -0.58 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#46) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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