I've never done bad things. "Ashes to Ashes" - David Bowie
Big South Conference · Templeton Center · December 29, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread CAM -2.5 Home covered
O/U 127.5 Over
Money PRES +140 / CAM -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total PRES win
Actual PRES +10 154 Won
Massey CAM -2.8 (+12.8) — —
Massey Totals — 129.5 (+24.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 32% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 26% ✗
Baseline Plus ML CAM -3.0 (+13.0) 130.3 (+23.7) 45% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ CAM -3.3 (+13.3) 128.6 (+25.4) 36% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML CAM -2.8 (+12.8) 131.8 (+22.2) 41% ✗
Baseline ML CAM -2.3 (+12.3) 134.5 (+19.5) 46% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 2, 2023 CAM 68 – 63 PRES
Feb 18, 2023 CAM 74 – 57 PRES
Mar 3, 2022 CAM 75 – 72 PRES
Feb 3, 2022 PRES 64 – 58 CAM
Jan 16, 2021 CAM 73 – 51 PRES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PRES CAM
Overall 5-27 16-18
Conference 1-17 8-10
Home 5-9 8-6
Away 0-15 4-10
Neutral 0-3 4-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L18 L1
Avg Pts For 61.8 68.7
Avg Pts Against 70.4 69.0
Massey -9.3 (#323) -1.7 (#206)
Bradley-Terry -2.25 (#337) -0.62 (#234)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.44 (#323) -0.38 (#204)
RPI 0.389 (#336) 0.440 (#283)
Shooting & Four Factors PRES CAM
FG% 41.1% 46.5%
3PT% 30.7% 34.1%
REB / G 32.8 29.8
OREB / G 10.7 6.4
AST / TO 0.78 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.6% 53.3%
TOV% 20.7% 19.8%
ORB% 31.2% 20.9%
FT Rate 20.3% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 53.9%
Opp TOV% 17.5% 20.2%
DRB% 70.0% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.3% 23.4%

Game Analysis

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